Packers vs Steelers — Week 10, 2023
The Packers took over trailing 23-19 with 0:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Packers 19, Steelers 23. Steelers won 23-19 — the drive turnover.
Packers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 19, 0:59 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.4% for Packers. Our model starts at 14.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 11-J.Reed pushed ob at PIT 35 for 46 yards (23-D.Kazee) [95-K.Benton].
- (:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 33-A.Jones to PIT 35 for no gain (37-E.Riley).
- (:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love scrambles right end ran ob at PIT 27 for 8 yards (50-E.Roberts).
- (:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 28-A.Dillon [56-A.Highsmith].
- (:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 28-A.Dillon to PIT 16 for 11 yards (23-D.Kazee, 37-E.Riley).
- (:04) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Kazee at PIT 2. 23-D.Kazee ran ob at PIT 32 for 30 yards (50-Z.Tom). PENALTY on GB-50-Z.Tom, Unnecessary Roughness, 0 yards, enforced at PIT 32.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.49 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.49 pts |
| Curl route | +1.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.03 pts |
| QB keep | +0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.85 pts |
| Play action | +0.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.47 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.46 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.98 pts |
| Inside run | -1.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Spike it | -1.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.