Buccaneers vs Colts — Week 12, 2023
The Buccaneers took over trailing 27-20 with 2:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 20, Colts 27. Colts won 27-20 — the drive turnover.
Buccaneers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 35, 2:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 12.0% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 10.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 10-T.Palmer to TB 42 for 7 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right end to TB 41 for 4 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 45-E.Speed).
- (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 35 for -6 yards (52-S.Ebukam). FUMBLES (52-S.Ebukam) [52-S.Ebukam], RECOVERED by IND-54-D.Odeyingbo at TB 38.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.07 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.07 pts |
| Deep post | +1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.75 pts |
| QB keep | +0.70 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.67 pts |
| Play action | +0.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.32 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.09 pts |
| Spike it | -1.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.