Commanders vs Eagles — Week 8, 2023
The Commanders took over trailing 31-24 with 3:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 31, Eagles 38. Eagles won 38-31 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Commanders ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 20, 3:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.1% for Commanders. Our model starts at 9.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin (52-Z.Cunningham).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 25 for 5 yards (21-S.Brown) [93-M.Williams].
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short middle to 1-J.Dotson (2-D.Slay). PHI-2-D.Slay was injured during the play. Washington challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell sacked at WAS 17 for -8 yards (7-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (7-H.Reddick) [7-H.Reddick], recovered by WAS-71-A.Wylie at WAS 16.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.80 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.80 pts |
| Deep post | +0.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.50 pts |
| QB keep | +0.41 pts |
| Play action | +0.32 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.17 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.96 pts |
| Spike it | -1.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.