Raiders vs Steelers — Week 3, 2023

What really happened

Final: Raiders 18, Steelers 23. Steelers won 23-18 — the drive scored.

Raiders ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. Near midfield, 4:35 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.1% for Raiders. Our model starts at 15.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (4:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 8-J.Jacobs to PIT 46 for 6 yards (54-K.Alexander).
2. (4:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at PIT 34 for 12 yards.
3. (4:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 8-J.Jacobs.
4. (3:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 16-J.Meyers pushed ob at PIT 27 for 7 yards (29-L.Wallace).
5. (3:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to PIT 25 for 2 yards (31-K.Neal).
6. (3:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 8-J.Jacobs to PIT 8 for 6 yards (50-E.Roberts, 44-M.Golden).
7. (2:35) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams.
8. (2:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 16-J.Meyers [54-K.Alexander].
9. (2:25) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.