Saints vs Texans — Week 6, 2023

What really happened

Final: Saints 13, Texans 20. Texans won 20-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Saints ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 15, 2:41 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.9% for Saints. Our model starts at 8.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (2:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to NO 19 for 4 yards.
2. (2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to NO 27 for 8 yards (51-W.Anderson).
3. (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to NO 36 for 9 yards (0-S.Griffin; 53-B.Cashman).
4. (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed. NO-22-R.Shaheed was injured during the play.
5. (1:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-M.Thomas to HOU 40 for 8 yards (21-S.Nelson).
6. (1:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara to HOU 33 for 2 yards (1-J.Ward).
7. (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right.
8. (:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 12-C.Olave to HOU 24 for 9 yards (21-S.Nelson).
9. (:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right.
10. (:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Thomas [96-M.Collins].
11. (:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed.
12. (:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Thomas (21-S.Nelson) [53-B.Cashman]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left intended for 13-M.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [53-B.Cashman] at HOU 2. 21-S.Nelson pushed ob at HOU 2 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.35 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.