Vikings vs Lions — Week 16, 2023
The Vikings took over trailing 30-24 with 2:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 24, Lions 30. Lions won 30-24 — the drive turnover.
Vikings ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 12, 2:23 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.2% for Vikings. Our model starts at 9.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep left to 17-K.Osborn (32-B.Branch).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 4-B.Powell to MIN 33 for 21 yards (32-B.Branch).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass incomplete short middle to 4-B.Powell (97-A.Hutchinson).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens sacked at MIN 24 for -9 yards (95-R.Okwara). FUMBLES (95-R.Okwara) [95-R.Okwara], touched at MIN 21, recovered by MIN-18-J.Jefferson at MIN 16.
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson to MIN 44 for 28 yards (31-K.Joseph; 1-C.Sutton).
- (1:06) (No Huddle) 12-N.Mullens spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 4-B.Powell ran ob at DET 30 for 26 yards (32-B.Branch).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 6-I.Melifonwu at DET 5. 6-I.Melifonwu to DET 16 for 11 yards (30-C.Ham).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.14 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.14 pts |
| Curl route | -0.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.45 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.48 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.49 pts |
| Play action | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| QB keep | -0.62 pts |
| Quick out | -0.76 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.78 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.83 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.89 pts |
| Spike it | -1.08 pts |
| Inside run | -1.36 pts |
| Outside run | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.