Chiefs vs Jaguars — Week 2, 2023
The Chiefs took over leading 17-9 with 4:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 16, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 17, Jaguars 9. Chiefs won 17-9 — the drive time expired.
Chiefs ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 16, 4:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.7% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 92.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:18) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to KC 16 for no gain (42-A.Wingard).
- (3:42) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left tackle to KC 30 for 14 yards (96-A.Gotsis).
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco right end to KC 34 for 4 yards (32-Ty.Campbell, 93-T.Lacy).
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco right end to KC 34 for no gain (90-A.Blackson).
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 24-S.Moore to JAX 12 for 54 yards (32-Ty.Campbell; 37-T.Herndon). Penalty on KC-87-T.Kelce, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-2-R.Jenkins, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
- (1:50) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to JAX 6 for 6 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris, 33-D.Lloyd).
- (1:45) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to JAX 1 for 5 yards (45-K.Chaisson; 32-Ty.Campbell).
- (1:38) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to JAX 4 for -3 yards.
- (:55) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to JAX 6 for -2 yards.
- (:18) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to JAX 7 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.27 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.88 pts |
| Quick out | -1.28 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.31 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.57 pts |
| QB keep | -1.63 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.81 pts |
| Play action | -2.84 pts |
| Curl route | -3.27 pts |
| End-around | -5.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.17 pts |
| Deep post | -8.74 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.