Eagles vs Commanders — Week 8, 2023
The Eagles took over leading 31-24 with 4:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 38, Commanders 31. Eagles won 38-31 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 40, 4:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.9% for Eagles. Our model starts at 92.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:13) (Shotgun) 0-D.Swift left end to PHI 41 for 1 yard (99-C.Young, 93-J.Allen).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Goedert (31-K.Curl).
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right.
- (3:18) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.24 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.83 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -1.05 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.11 pts |
| QB keep | -1.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.64 pts |
| Curl route | -3.07 pts |
| End-around | -5.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.13 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.01 pts |
| Deep post | -8.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.93 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.83 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.