Dolphins vs Raiders — Week 11, 2023
The Dolphins took over leading 20-13 with 3:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 20, Raiders 13. Dolphins won 20-13 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 38, 3:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.2% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 94.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert right tackle to MIA 45 for 7 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert up the middle to MIA 49 for 4 yards (41-R.Spillane, 90-J.Tillery).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert up the middle to LV 47 for 4 yards (98-M.Crosby).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to LV 45 for 2 yards (95-J.Jenkins; 41-R.Spillane).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right.
- (2:05) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to LV 7, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.14 pts |
| QB keep | -1.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.86 pts |
| Curl route | -3.22 pts |
| End-around | -5.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.29 pts |
| Deep post | -9.02 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.16 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.10 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.