Steelers vs Ravens — Week 5, 2023
The Steelers took over trailing 10-8 with 4:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 17, Ravens 10. Steelers won 17-10 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 20, 4:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.6% for Steelers. Our model starts at 38.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:06) 22-N.Harris left tackle to PIT 21 for 1 yard (50-K.Van Noy).
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short middle to 83-Co.Heyward (10-A.Maulet).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 11-A.Robinson to PIT 31 for 10 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short middle to 11-A.Robinson (6-P.Queen).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 30-J.Warren to PIT 37 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep left to 14-G.Pickens to BAL 42 for 21 yards (21-B.Stephens).
- (2:00) 30-J.Warren right tackle to BAL 41 for 1 yard (92-J.Madubuike).
- (1:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Pickett pass to 13-M.Boykin is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.08 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.82 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.08 pts |
| Curl route | +1.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.94 pts |
| Play action | +0.71 pts |
| QB keep | +0.56 pts |
| Quick out | +0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Deep post | -0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.82 pts |
| Spike it | -2.82 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.