Saints vs Packers — Week 3, 2023
The Saints took over trailing 18-17 with 2:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 17, Packers 18. Packers won 18-17 — the drive missed field goal.
Saints ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 2:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.0% for Saints. Our model starts at 47.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to NO 30 for 5 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
- (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Olave pushed ob at GB 42 for 28 yards (35-C.Ballentine).
- (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (20-R.Ford).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Olave to GB 32 for 10 yards (35-C.Ballentine).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right tackle to GB 30 for 2 yards (95-D.Wyatt; 91-P.Smith).
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Olave.
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Thomas to GB 28 for 2 yards (26-D.Savage).
- (1:10) 19-B.Grupe 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.45 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.45 pts |
| Curl route | +1.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.29 pts |
| QB keep | +1.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.62 pts |
| Play action | +0.51 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.48 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.24 pts |
| Deep post | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.