Bears vs Vikings — Week 12, 2023
The Bears took over trailing 10-9 with 2:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Bears 12, Vikings 10. Bears won 12-10 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 22, 2:29 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.5% for Bears. Our model starts at 43.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore to CHI 38 for 16 yards (7-B.Murphy).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end ran ob at CHI 43 for 5 yards (40-I.Pace).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields left end to MIN 49 for 8 yards (40-I.Pace).
- (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short left [91-P.Jones].
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right [99-D.Hunter].
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 2-D.Moore to MIN 13 for 36 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum).
- (:55) 1-J.Fields kneels to MIN 9 for -1 yards.
- (:53) 1-J.Fields kneels to MIN 11 for -2 yards.
- (:51) 1-J.Fields kneels to MIN 12 for -1 yards.
- (:13) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.83 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.83 pts |
| Curl route | +1.74 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.53 pts |
| Play action | +0.80 pts |
| Quick out | +0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.63 pts |
| Outside run | +0.30 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.55 pts |
| Deep post | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.11 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.