Lions vs Seahawks — Week 2, 2023
The Lions took over trailing 31-28 with 1:44 left, 1st & 10 at midfield, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Lions 31, Seahawks 31. Tied 31-31 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Near midfield, 1:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 40.9% for Lions. Our model starts at 42.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds to SEA 38 for 12 yards (20-J.Love) [90-Ja.Reed].
- (1:05) 11-K.Raymond right end to SEA 27 for 11 yards (20-J.Love).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs to SEA 23 for 4 yards (56-J.Brooks).
- (:26) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 14-A.St. Brown [90-Ja.Reed].
- (:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 26-J.Gibbs to SEA 20 for 3 yards (20-J.Love).
- (:03) 36-R.Patterson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.13 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.13 pts |
| QB keep | +2.01 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.80 pts |
| Play action | +1.03 pts |
| Quick out | +0.90 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.76 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.35 pts |
| Deep post | -0.00 pts |
| Outside run | -0.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -1.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.