Seahawks vs Browns — Week 8, 2023
The Seahawks took over trailing 20-17 with 1:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 24, Browns 20. Seahawks won 24-20 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 43, 1:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.0% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 37.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett to 50 for 7 yards (21-D.Ward).
- (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf to CLE 41 for 9 yards (21-D.Ward).
- (1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant to CLE 14 for 27 yards (5-A.Walker).
- (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Metcalf (21-D.Ward).
- (:44) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.13 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.82 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.75 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.75 pts |
| QB keep | +1.56 pts |
| Play action | +1.05 pts |
| Quick out | +0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.73 pts |
| Deep post | +0.37 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Spike it | -2.82 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.