Vikings vs Bears — Week 12, 2023
The Vikings took over leading 10-9 with 3:28 left, 1st & 10 at the Bears 43, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 10, Bears 12. Bears won 12-10 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. In Bears territory, 3:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.5% for Vikings. Our model starts at 76.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:28) 2-A.Mattison up the middle to CHI 43 for no gain (9-J.Brisker).
- (2:45) 2-A.Mattison right tackle to CHI 42 for 1 yard (93-Ju.Jones).
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 4-B.Powell to CHI 43 for -1 yards (53-T.Edwards).
- (2:36) 14-R.Wright punts 26 yards to CHI 22, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.51 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.04 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick out | -0.14 pts |
| QB keep | -0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Play action | -0.82 pts |
| Curl route | -0.95 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.08 pts |
| End-around | -3.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.70 pts |
| Deep post | -5.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.53 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.