Jaguars vs Colts — Week 1, 2023
The Jaguars took over leading 24-21 with 5:00 left, 1st & 10 at the Colts 44, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 31, Colts 21. Jaguars won 31-21 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In Colts territory, 5:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.3% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 81.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (5:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to IND 41 for 3 yards (99-D.Buckner; 33-D.Flowers).
- (4:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-Z.Jones pushed ob at IND 26 for 15 yards (25-R.Thomas).
- (4:15) 1-T.Etienne left tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.84 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.84 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.07 pts |
| Outside run | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Quick out | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.71 pts |
| QB keep | -0.74 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -1.62 pts |
| Curl route | -1.90 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.97 pts |
| End-around | -4.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.67 pts |
| Deep post | -6.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.44 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.