Saints vs Titans — Week 1, 2023
The Saints took over leading 16-15 with 2:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Saints 16, Titans 15. Saints won 16-15 — the drive time expired.
Saints ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 29, 2:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.0% for Saints. Our model starts at 68.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:12) 22-R.Shaheed left end to NO 41 for 12 yards (24-E.Molden). PENALTY on NO-18-K.Kirkwood, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 34.
- (2:05) 21-J.Williams right guard to NO 25 for 1 yard (50-J.Gibbens).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-M.Thomas to NO 33 for 8 yards (0-S.Murphy-Bunting; 37-A.Hooker). TEN-37-A.Hooker was injured during the play.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at TEN 26 for 41 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:50) 21-J.Williams right guard to TEN 26 for no gain (2-A.Al-Shaair; 98-J.Simmons).
- (1:46) 22-R.Shaheed right end to TEN 20 for 6 yards (98-J.Simmons).
- (1:39) 21-J.Williams right tackle to TEN 9 for 11 yards (31-K.Byard, 0-S.Murphy-Bunting). FUMBLES (0-S.Murphy-Bunting), and recovers at TEN 9.
- (:59) 4-D.Carr kneels to TEN 11 for -2 yards.
- (:35) 4-D.Carr kneels to TEN 12 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.12 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.12 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.70 pts |
| QB keep | +0.41 pts |
| Quick out | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Curl route | +0.16 pts |
| Play action | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Outside run | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.98 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.49 pts |
| End-around | -3.03 pts |
| Deep post | -3.49 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.