Steelers vs Browns — Week 2, 2023
The Steelers took over leading 26-22 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 26, Browns 22. Steelers won 26-22 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.6% for Steelers. Our model starts at 79.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris right guard to PIT 26 for 1 yard (93-S.Harris).
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 34 for 8 yards (1-J.Thornhill, 22-G.Delpit).
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett right tackle to PIT 31 for -3 yards (54-O.Okoronkwo, 5-A.Walker).
- (3:02) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.85 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.02 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| Quick out | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.61 pts |
| QB keep | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Play action | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| Curl route | -1.69 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.77 pts |
| End-around | -3.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.45 pts |
| Deep post | -6.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.22 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.85 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.