Steelers vs Packers — Week 10, 2023
The Steelers took over leading 23-19 with 3:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 23, Packers 19. Steelers won 23-19 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 24, 3:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 80.0% for Steelers. Our model starts at 83.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:20) 22-N.Harris left tackle to PIT 25 for 1 yard (52-R.Gary).
- (2:37) 22-N.Harris left tackle to PIT 28 for 3 yards (20-R.Ford, 95-D.Wyatt).
- (2:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett scrambles right end to PIT 39 for 11 yards (34-J.Owens).
- (2:25) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 40 for 1 yard (93-T.Slaton; 20-R.Ford).
- (2:20) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 40 for no gain (93-T.Slaton, 90-L.Van Ness).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 41 for 11 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
- (1:09) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to GB 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-37-E.Riley.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.65 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Quick out | -0.47 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| QB keep | -0.62 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Play action | -1.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Curl route | -1.76 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.90 pts |
| End-around | -4.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.62 pts |
| Deep post | -6.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.51 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.