Raiders vs Patriots — Week 6, 2023
The Raiders took over leading 19-17 with 3:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 21, Patriots 17. Raiders won 21-17 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 3:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.6% for Raiders. Our model starts at 70.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:33) 7-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short right to 16-J.Meyers (5-J.Peppers).
- (3:29) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle to LV 27 for 2 yards (3-M.Wilson; 90-C.Barmore).
- (2:44) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 8-J.Jacobs left tackle to LV 43 for 5 yards (90-C.Barmore).
- (2:39) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 46 for 3 yards (5-J.Peppers).
- (2:35) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 45 for -1 yards (90-C.Barmore, 3-M.Wilson).
- (2:31) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to NE 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.35 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.05 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| QB keep | +0.02 pts |
| Outside run | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.18 pts |
| Curl route | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -2.50 pts |
| End-around | -3.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.73 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.27 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.88 pts |
| Deep post | -6.74 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.