Panthers vs Titans — Week 12, 2023
The Panthers took over trailing 17-10 with 2:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 10, Titans 17. Titans won 17-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Panthers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 20, 2:57 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.2% for Panthers. Our model starts at 8.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard pushed ob at CAR 23 for 3 yards (35-K.Wallace).
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 15 for -8 yards (96-D.Autry).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to CAR 24 for 9 yards (2-A.Al-Shaair, 21-R.McCreary).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 17-D.Chark to CAR 24 for no gain (37-A.Hooker).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.74 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.74 pts |
| Deep post | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.51 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.46 pts |
| Play action | +0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.19 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.18 pts |
| Quick out | +0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.24 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.84 pts |
| Spike it | -0.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.