Seahawks vs Rams — Week 11, 2023
The Seahawks took over trailing 17-16 with 1:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 16, Rams 17. Rams won 17-16 — the drive missed field goal.
Seahawks ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 1:31 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.1% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 44.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to SEA 38 for 13 yards (37-Q.Lake).
- (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf.
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 26-Z.Charbonnet to SEA 40 for 2 yards (4-J.Fuller). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf to LA 39 for 21 yards (43-J.Johnson).
- (:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle to LA 37 for 2 yards (53-E.Jones, 0-B.Young).
- (:09) 7-G.Smith spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:08) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.14 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.86 pts |
| QB keep | +1.72 pts |
| Play action | +1.08 pts |
| Quick out | +0.97 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.83 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.06 pts |
| Deep post | -0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.