Packers vs Falcons — Week 2, 2023
The Packers took over trailing 25-24 with 0:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Packers 24, Falcons 25. Falcons won 25-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Packers ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 0:57 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.2% for Packers. Our model starts at 43.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Reed.
- (:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Reed [17-A.Ebiketie].
- (:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 87-R.Doubs [97-G.Jarrett].
- (:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 83-S.Toure to GB 38 for 13 yards (33-T.Flowers). PENALTY on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at GB 25 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 83-S.Toure (33-T.Flowers). Penalty on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+2.57 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +2.57 pts |
| Curl route | +2.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | +2.02 pts |
| QB keep | +1.83 pts |
| Quick out | +1.51 pts |
| Quick hook | +1.36 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.94 pts |
| Quick RPO | +0.10 pts |
| Outside run | -0.34 pts |
| Play action | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.26 pts |
| Deep post | -2.38 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.