Cardinals vs Giants — Week 2, 2023
The Cardinals took over tied at 28 with 4:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 28, Giants 31. Giants won 31-28 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 4:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.4% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 55.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 26 for 1 yard (97-D.Lawrence).
- (3:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 29 for 3 yards (97-D.Lawrence; 58-B.Okereke).
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to ARI 24 for 5 yards (58-B.Okereke; 22-A.Jackson).
- (2:39) 16-N.Cooney punts 48 yards to NYG 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 20-E.Gray.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.85 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.85 pts |
| QB keep | +0.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.50 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.39 pts |
| Curl route | +0.24 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.25 pts |
| Play action | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.48 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Deep post | -3.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.