Commanders vs Giants — Week 11, 2023
The Commanders took over trailing 24-19 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 1 timeout in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 19, Giants 31. Giants won 31-19 — the drive turnover.
Commanders ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 19, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.0% for Commanders. Our model starts at 12.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 8-B.Robinson ran ob at WAS 25 for 6 yards (37-T.Hawkins).
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 3-B.Pringle to WAS 39 for 14 yards (37-T.Hawkins).
- (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short right to 8-B.Robinson.
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short right.
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas to NYG 48 for 8 yards (30-D.Holmes).
- (:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 83-J.Crowder to NYG 43 for 5 yards (30-D.Holmes).
- (:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 19-I.Simmons at NYG 46. 19-I.Simmons for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.36 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.14 pts |
| Deep post | +1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.79 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.66 pts |
| QB keep | +0.52 pts |
| Play action | +0.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Spike it | -1.36 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.