Lions vs Bears — Week 11, 2023
The Lions took over trailing 26-21 with 2:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Lions 31, Bears 26. Lions won 31-26 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 27, 2:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.8% for Lions. Our model starts at 16.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 5-D.Montgomery to DET 40 for 13 yards (6-K.Gordon; 57-J.Sanborn) [95-D.Walker].
- (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 9-J.Williams.
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to CHI 48 for 12 yards (9-J.Brisker).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 26-J.Gibbs to CHI 42 for 6 yards (57-J.Sanborn; 6-K.Gordon).
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta pushed ob at CHI 34 for 8 yards (53-T.Edwards).
- (1:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 5-D.Montgomery to CHI 25 for 9 yards (57-J.Sanborn, 29-T.Stevenson) [99-G.Dexter].
- (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to CHI 15 for 10 yards (4-E.Jackson).
- (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to CHI 7 for 8 yards (9-J.Brisker).
- (:43) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left. ball thrown away
- (:38) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to CHI 1 for 6 yards (4-E.Jackson).
- (:31) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 16-J.Goff pass to 87-S.LaPorta is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.43 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.43 pts |
| Deep post | +1.10 pts |
| QB keep | +1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.05 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.97 pts |
| Play action | +0.66 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Spike it | -1.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.