Browns vs Steelers — Week 2, 2023
The Browns took over trailing 26-22 with 2:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 22, Steelers 26. Steelers won 26-22 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Browns ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.7% for Browns. Our model starts at 22.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 18-Dav.Bell pushed ob at CLE 28 for 8 yards (55-C.Holcomb).
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at CLE 36 for 8 yards (29-L.Wallace).
- (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 8-E.Moore to 50 for 14 yards (54-K.Alexander) [90-T.Watt].
- (2:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left tackle to PIT 47 for 3 yards (54-K.Alexander).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 8-E.Moore.
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at PIT 49 for -2 yards (37-E.Riley).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.19 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.14 pts |
| QB keep | +1.01 pts |
| Deep post | +0.81 pts |
| Play action | +0.72 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Spike it | -2.10 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.