Raiders vs Dolphins — Week 11, 2023
The Raiders took over trailing 20-13 with 1:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 7, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 13, Dolphins 20. Dolphins won 20-13 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Backed up at their own 7, 1:58 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.9% for Raiders. Our model starts at 6.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right to 17-D.Adams ran ob at LV 13 for 6 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel; 25-X.Howard).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to LV 18 for 5 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
- (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 11-T.Tucker to LV 37 for 19 yards (8-J.Holland).
- (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right to 22-A.Abdullah to LV 41 for 4 yards (55-J.Baker).
- (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams.
- (:42) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at MIA 39 for 20 yards (21-D.Elliott).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass incomplete short middle to 81-A.Hooper (25-X.Howard).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep middle intended for 11-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at MIA -6. Touchback. MIA-5-J.Ramsey was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.15 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.15 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Curl route | -0.48 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.51 pts |
| Quick out | -0.53 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.54 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.57 pts |
| QB keep | -0.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.60 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.62 pts |
| Spike it | -0.71 pts |
| Play action | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Outside run | -1.04 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.