49ers vs Rams — Week 2, 2023
The 49ers took over leading 27-20 with 4:48 left, 1st & 10 at the Rams 15, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 30, Rams 23. 49ers won 30-23 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At the Rams 15, 4:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.8% for 49ers. Our model starts at 94.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:48) 23-C.McCaffrey right tackle to LA 9 for 6 yards (95-B.Brown, 2-R.Yeast).
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to LA 8 for 1 yard (0-B.Young; 53-E.Jones).
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right to 19-D.Samuel.
- (3:02) 4-J.Moody 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.10 pts |
| Field goal | +0.65 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.79 pts |
| Quick out | -1.15 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.19 pts |
| QB keep | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.92 pts |
| Curl route | -3.36 pts |
| End-around | -5.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.52 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.21 pts |
| Deep post | -9.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.