Saints vs Colts — Week 8, 2023
The Saints took over leading 35-27 with 3:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 33, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Saints 38, Colts 27. Saints won 38-27 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 33, 3:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.9% for Saints. Our model starts at 94.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:48) 21-J.Williams up the middle to NO 39 for 6 yards (51-K.Paye).
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 30 for 1 yard (52-S.Ebukam, 44-Z.Franklin).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 22-R.Shaheed to IND 19 for 51 yards (38-T.Brown).
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left tackle to IND 14 for 5 yards (25-R.Thomas). 7-T.Hill in at QB for NO.
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left tackle to IND 9 for 5 yards (53-S.Leonard, 52-S.Ebukam).
- (2:00) 67-L.Young and 99-K.Saunders reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara left guard to IND 5 for 4 yards (53-S.Leonard, 32-J.Blackmon). 4-D.Carr in at QB for NO.
- (1:55) 67-L.Young and 99-K.Saunders reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara left guard to IND 7 for -2 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo).
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 67-L.Young, 70-T.Penning and 99-K.Saunders reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left tackle to IND 9 for -2 yards (32-J.Blackmon, 44-Z.Franklin). 7-T.Hill in at QB for NO.
- (:28) 19-B.Grupe 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.08 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.74 pts |
| Quick out | -1.12 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.16 pts |
| QB keep | -1.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.49 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| Play action | -2.79 pts |
| Curl route | -3.24 pts |
| End-around | -5.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.30 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.21 pts |
| Deep post | -8.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.