Chargers vs Titans — Week 2, 2023
The Chargers took over trailing 24-21 with 2:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 24, Titans 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive scored.
Chargers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.8% for Chargers. Our model starts at 29.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 81-M.Williams to LAC 40 for 15 yards (23-T.Avery).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams to LAC 49 for 9 yards (23-T.Avery).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 89-D.Parham to TEN 44 for 7 yards (23-T.Avery; 31-K.Byard).
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to TEN 25 for 14 yards (21-R.McCreary; 31-K.Byard).
- (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 89-D.Parham.
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen to TEN 14 for 11 yards (24-E.Molden).
- (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 5-J.Palmer to TEN 10 for 4 yards (31-K.Byard).
- (:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 5-J.Palmer to TEN 7 for 3 yards (23-T.Avery).
- (:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at TEN 15 for -8 yards (58-H.Landry).
- (:03) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.91 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.50 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.46 pts |
| QB keep | +1.31 pts |
| Play action | +0.92 pts |
| Deep post | +0.74 pts |
| Quick out | +0.70 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.58 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Spike it | -2.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.