Cardinals vs Commanders — Week 1, 2023
The Cardinals took over trailing 20-16 with 2:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 16, Commanders 20. Commanders won 20-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cardinals ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:23 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.9% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 23.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 29 for 4 yards (29-K.Fuller).
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left end to ARI 37 for 3 yards (31-K.Curl; 93-J.Allen).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short left to 6-J.Conner to ARI 39 for 2 yards (31-K.Curl).
- (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs sacked at ARI 31 for -8 yards (93-J.Allen).
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz pushed ob at ARI 37 for 6 yards (31-K.Curl).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson (13-E.Forbes).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.76 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.32 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.25 pts |
| QB keep | +1.10 pts |
| Deep post | +1.05 pts |
| Play action | +0.83 pts |
| Quick out | +0.59 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Spike it | -2.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.