Bears vs Lions — Week 11, 2023
The Bears took over leading 26-21 with 2:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Bears 26, Lions 31. Lions won 31-26 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.3% for Bears. Our model starts at 88.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert up the middle to CHI 25 for no gain (46-J.Campbell).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left tackle to CHI 26 for 1 yard (54-A.McNeill).
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete deep left to 13-T.Scott.
- (2:44) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to DET 27, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.54 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.54 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.21 pts |
| Outside run | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick out | -0.70 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.75 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.89 pts |
| QB keep | -0.94 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Play action | -2.00 pts |
| Curl route | -2.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.46 pts |
| End-around | -4.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.27 pts |
| Deep post | -7.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.20 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.