Commanders vs Cardinals — Week 1, 2023
The Commanders took over leading 17-16 with 4:38 left, 1st & 10 at the Cardinals 22, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 20, Cardinals 16. Commanders won 20-16 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. In Cardinals territory, 4:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.0% for Commanders. Our model starts at 77.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:38) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard to ARI 21 for 1 yard (93-J.Ledbetter).
- (3:54) 8-B.Robinson left end to ARI 18 for 3 yards (92-K.Strong, 7-K.White).
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left tackle to ARI 15 for 3 yards (93-J.Ledbetter; 94-C.Watkins).
- (2:26) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+2.03 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +2.03 pts |
| Outside run | +0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.24 pts |
| QB keep | +0.10 pts |
| Inside run | -0.04 pts |
| Field goal | -0.24 pts |
| Quick out | -0.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.83 pts |
| Curl route | -1.36 pts |
| Play action | -1.45 pts |
| End-around | -3.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.79 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.84 pts |
| Deep post | -6.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.