Jaguars vs Bills — Week 5, 2023
The Jaguars took over leading 18-13 with 4:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 25, Bills 20. Jaguars won 25-20 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.3% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 85.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left guard to JAX 31 for 6 yards (24-K.Elam; 43-T.Bernard).
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left guard to JAX 31 for no gain (25-T.Dodson; 57-A.Epenesa). JAX-74-C.Robinson was injured during the play.
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley pushed ob at BUF 37 for 32 yards (23-M.Hyde) [25-T.Dodson].
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to BUF 35 for 2 yards (99-T.Settle).
- (3:04) 1-T.Etienne left guard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.61 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.20 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Quick out | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.76 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.87 pts |
| QB keep | -0.90 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Play action | -1.90 pts |
| Curl route | -2.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.32 pts |
| End-around | -4.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.09 pts |
| Deep post | -7.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.