Patriots vs Colts — Week 10, 2023
The Patriots took over trailing 10-6 with 1:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 6, Colts 10. Colts won 10-6 — the drive turnover.
Patriots ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 14, 1:52 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.7% for Patriots. Our model starts at 17.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:52) 4-B.Zappe in at QB. (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at NE 19 for 5 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short middle to 81-D.Douglas.
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 85-H.Henry to NE 30 for 11 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
- (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short middle.
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Douglas.
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle to 81-D.Douglas to NE 39 for 9 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
- (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 40 for 1 yard (94-Ty.Lewis).
- (:36) (No Huddle) 4-B.Zappe pass deep middle intended for 81-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Thomas at IND 37. 25-R.Thomas to IND 42 for 5 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.43 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.43 pts |
| Curl route | +0.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.26 pts |
| Play action | -0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.49 pts |
| QB keep | -0.51 pts |
| Quick out | -0.76 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.80 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.91 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.99 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.26 pts |
| Spike it | -1.74 pts |
| Outside run | -1.76 pts |
| Inside run | -1.95 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.