Bengals vs Texans — Week 10, 2023
The Bengals took over trailing 27-24 with 2:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 27, Texans 30. Texans won 30-27 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 29, 2:10 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.1% for Bengals. Our model starts at 28.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right [51-W.Anderson].
- (2:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at HOU 7 for 64 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at HOU 14 for -7 yards (98-S.Rankins).
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to HOU 13 for 1 yard (96-M.Collins).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Boyd.
- (1:37) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.01 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.52 pts |
| QB keep | +1.36 pts |
| Play action | +1.01 pts |
| Deep post | +0.91 pts |
| Quick out | +0.75 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.63 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.23 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -1.25 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Spike it | -2.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.