Texans vs Bengals — Week 10, 2023
The Texans took over leading 27-24 with 3:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Texans 30, Bengals 27. Texans won 30-27 — the drive turned it over.
Texans ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.4% for Texans. Our model starts at 78.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:18) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to HOU 29 for 4 yards (96-C.Sample).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary right guard to HOU 32 for 3 yards (91-T.Hendrickson; 29-C.Taylor-Britt).
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 3-N.Dell (20-D.Turner).
- (2:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 29 for 8 yards (53-B.Cashman).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.58 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.37 pts |
| Outside run | +0.24 pts |
| QB keep | -0.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.21 pts |
| Quick out | -0.25 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.34 pts |
| Inside run | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.49 pts |
| Curl route | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Play action | -1.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.71 pts |
| End-around | -3.73 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.36 pts |
| Deep post | -6.16 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.