Ravens vs Bengals — Week 2, 2023
The Ravens took over leading 27-24 with 3:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 27, Bengals 24. Ravens won 27-24 — the drive time expired.
Ravens ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.9% for Ravens. Our model starts at 77.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:28) 35-G.Edwards left guard to BAL 27 for 2 yards (92-B.Hill; 23-D.Hill).
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 13-D.Duvernay right end to BAL 32 for 5 yards (22-C.Awuzie).
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end to BAL 44 for 12 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end to BAL 45 for 1 yard (23-D.Hill).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 13-D.Duvernay right end to CIN 47 for 8 yards (23-D.Hill).
- (1:15) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to CIN 42 for 5 yards (92-B.Hill).
- (:29) 8-L.Jackson kneels to CIN 43 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.16 pts |
| Quick out | -0.22 pts |
| QB keep | -0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Play action | -0.96 pts |
| Curl route | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.24 pts |
| End-around | -3.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.87 pts |
| Deep post | -5.49 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.70 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.