Buccaneers vs Vikings — Week 1, 2023
The Buccaneers took over leading 20-17 with 3:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 20, Vikings 17. Buccaneers won 20-17 — the drive time expired.
Buccaneers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 30, 3:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.3% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 76.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:52) 1-R.White up the middle to TB 35 for 5 yards (40-I.Pace; 94-D.Lowry). PENALTY on MIN-94-D.Lowry, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TB 35.
- (3:47) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans to MIN 44 for 6 yards (58-J.Hicks).
- (3:44) 1-R.White left guard to MIN 43 for 1 yard (95-K.Tonga; 40-I.Pace).
- (3:39) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end to MIN 39 for 4 yards (40-I.Pace).
- (2:52) 1-R.White right tackle to MIN 39 for no gain (97-H.Phillips; 90-J.Bullard).
- (2:09) 18-R.Jarrett right end to MIN 39 for no gain (40-I.Pace).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin ran ob at MIN 28 for 11 yards.
- (1:55) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to MIN 29 for -1 yards.
- (1:16) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to MIN 30 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to MIN 31 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.72 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.35 pts |
| Outside run | +0.27 pts |
| QB keep | -0.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.21 pts |
| Quick out | -0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.35 pts |
| Inside run | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Curl route | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Play action | -1.32 pts |
| End-around | -3.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.27 pts |
| Deep post | -5.99 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.69 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.