Raiders vs Chargers — Week 4, 2023
The Raiders took over trailing 24-17 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at the Chargers 34, 1 timeout in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 17, Chargers 24. Chargers won 24-17 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. In Chargers territory, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.0% for Raiders. Our model starts at 21.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow to LAC 22 for 12 yards (36-J.Taylor).
- (3:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams.
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass incomplete short middle to 8-J.Jacobs (52-K.Mack).
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass incomplete deep right to 16-J.Meyers.
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at LAC 3 for 19 yards (43-M.Davis).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Samuel at LAC 3. 26-A.Samuel to LAC 11 for 8 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Field goal (-2.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.48 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.11 pts |
| QB keep | +0.94 pts |
| Quick out | +0.75 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.66 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.17 pts |
| Play action | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Deep post | -0.71 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.04 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Spike it | -2.00 pts |
| Field goal | -2.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.