Buccaneers vs Falcons — Week 7, 2023

What really happened

Final: Buccaneers 13, Falcons 16. Falcons won 16-13 — the drive scored.

Buccaneers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 33, 2:36 on the clock, no timeouts left.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 33.9% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 31.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (2:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Godwin.
2. (2:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White to TB 34 for 1 yard (20-D.Alford).
3. (2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle ran ob at ATL 35 for 31 yards (1-J.Okudah).
4. (1:57) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right tackle to ATL 32 for 3 yards (55-K.Elliss).
5. (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton pushed ob at ATL 24 for 8 yards (27-R.Grant).
6. (1:28) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to ATL 23 for 1 yard (93-C.Campbell; 0-L.Carter).
7. (1:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 14-C.Godwin (20-D.Alford).
8. (1:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Godwin [90-D.Onyemata].
9. (:56) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at ATL 18 for -10 yards (90-D.Onyemata).
10. (:49) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.87 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.