Seahawks vs Lions — Week 2, 2023
The Seahawks took over leading 31-28 with 3:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 31, Lions 31. Tied 31-31 — the drive turned it over.
Seahawks ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 28, 3:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.8% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 79.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:03) 7-G.Smith scrambles up the middle to SEA 30 for 2 yards (32-B.Branch).
- (2:20) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Parkinson (97-A.Hutchinson).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 3 for -17 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
- (1:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 64 yards to DET 33, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (32-Je.Reed).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.65 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.40 pts |
| Outside run | +0.29 pts |
| QB keep | -0.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.18 pts |
| Quick out | -0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.32 pts |
| Inside run | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.17 pts |
| Curl route | -1.21 pts |
| Play action | -1.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.72 pts |
| End-around | -3.73 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.38 pts |
| Deep post | -6.21 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.