Browns vs 49ers — Week 6, 2023
The Browns took over trailing 17-16 with 2:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 2 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 19, 49ers 17. Browns won 19-17 — the drive scored.
Browns ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 26, 2:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 49.8% for Browns. Our model starts at 47.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short middle to 8-E.Moore [98-J.Hargrave].
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete deep right to 8-E.Moore.
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford left end pushed ob at SF 45 for 14 yards (29-T.Hufanga).
- (2:29) 34-J.Ford left end pushed ob at SF 36 for 4 yards (29-T.Hufanga).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford right guard to SF 14 for 22 yards (31-T.Gipson).
- (2:00) 27-K.Hunt left tackle to SF 13 for 1 yard (97-N.Bosa).
- (1:55) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short right to 2-A.Cooper.
- (1:49) 27-K.Hunt left guard to SF 11 for 2 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
- (1:43) 7-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.45 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.45 pts |
| Curl route | +1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.28 pts |
| Play action | +0.98 pts |
| QB keep | +0.83 pts |
| Quick out | +0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.48 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Deep post | -0.52 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.67 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.76 pts |
| Spike it | -2.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.