Ravens vs Colts — Week 3, 2023
The Ravens took over tied at 19 with 4:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 46, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 19, Colts 19. Tied 19-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Ravens ball, even score — any score wins it. Near midfield, 4:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.7% for Ravens. Our model starts at 64.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left to 37-K.Drake.
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to IND 47 for 7 yards (25-R.Thomas, 32-J.Blackmon).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 80-I.Likely.
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 4-Z.Flowers.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.19 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-6.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.19 pts |
| Take a knee | +1.08 pts |
| QB keep | +0.54 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.32 pts |
| Outside run | +0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.10 pts |
| Curl route | -0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.22 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.25 pts |
| Play action | -2.52 pts |
| Spike it | -2.72 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.13 pts |
| Deep post | -6.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.