Vikings vs Chargers — Week 3, 2023
The Vikings took over trailing 28-24 with 1:47 left, 1st & 10 at the Chargers 24, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 24, Chargers 28. Chargers won 28-24 — the drive turnover.
Vikings ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. In Chargers territory, 1:47 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 48.2% for Vikings. Our model starts at 43.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 17-K.Osborn.
- (1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-A.Mattison up the middle to LAC 25 for -1 yards (51-S.Joseph).
- (:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 87-T.Hockenson (32-A.Gilman). MIN-87-T.Hockenson was injured during the play. PENALTY on MIN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 20.
- (:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 4-B.Powell ran ob at LAC 20 for 5 yards (26-A.Samuel).
- (:47) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson pushed ob at LAC 15 for 5 yards (31-N.Niemann).
- (:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to LAC 6 for 9 yards (41-R.Layne) [52-K.Mack].
- (:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 9-K.Murray (31-N.Niemann) at LAC 0. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+5.28 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +5.28 pts |
| Curl route | +2.15 pts |
| QB keep | +2.06 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.88 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.83 pts |
| Play action | +1.05 pts |
| Quick out | +0.94 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.79 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Deep post | -1.77 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.