Seahawks vs Bengals — Week 6, 2023
The Seahawks took over trailing 17-13 with 1:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 13, Bengals 17. Bengals won 17-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Seahawks ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 1:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.8% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 25.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson to SEA 48 for 8 yards (55-L.Wilson).
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett to CIN 11 for 36 yards (33-N.Scott).
- (:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (23-D.Hill).
- (:49) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to CIN 9 for 2 yards (98-D.Reader; 55-L.Wilson).
- (:44) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 14-D.Metcalf.
- (:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (92-B.Hill) [92-B.Hill].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.13 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.52 pts |
| Deep post | +1.37 pts |
| QB keep | +1.35 pts |
| Play action | +1.08 pts |
| Quick out | +0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.47 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Spike it | -2.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.