Patriots vs Raiders — Week 6, 2023
The Patriots took over trailing 19-17 with 2:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 17, Raiders 21. Raiders won 21-17 — the drive turned it over.
Patriots ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. Backed up at their own 9, 2:23 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.2% for Patriots. Our model starts at 33.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 15 for 6 yards (41-R.Spillane).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 1-D.Parker (1-M.Epps).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked in End Zone for -4 yards, SAFETY (sack split by 91-B.Nichols and 98-M.Crosby).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Pull RPO (-1.18 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Pull RPO | -1.18 pts |
| Curl route | -1.19 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.21 pts |
| Deep post | -1.47 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.52 pts |
| Quick out | -1.64 pts |
| QB keep | -1.64 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.69 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.73 pts |
| Play action | -1.85 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.85 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.06 pts |
| Outside run | -2.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.26 pts |
| Inside run | -2.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.64 pts |
| Spike it | -2.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.