Broncos vs Jets — Week 5, 2023
The Broncos took over trailing 24-21 with 2:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 3, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 21, Jets 31. Jets won 31-21 — the drive turnover.
Broncos ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 3, 2:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.0% for Broncos. Our model starts at 25.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 89-B.Johnson pushed ob at DEN 12 for 9 yards (1-A.Gardner).
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 25 for 13 yards (1-A.Gardner).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 25-S.Perine to DEN 29 for 4 yards (57-C.Mosley, 91-J.Franklin-Myers).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 21 for -8 yards (56-Qu.Williams).
- (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 10-J.Jeudy to DEN 41 for 20 yards (30-M.Carter; 57-C.Mosley).
- (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 25-S.Perine [47-B.Huff].
- (:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 34 for -7 yards (56-Qu.Williams). FUMBLES (56-Qu.Williams) [56-Qu.Williams], RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Bry.Hall at DEN 39. 37-Bry.Hall for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.01 pts), and the weakest was Deep corner (-2.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.01 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.39 pts |
| QB keep | -1.40 pts |
| Quick out | -1.48 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.58 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.69 pts |
| Deep post | -1.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.91 pts |
| Curl route | -2.20 pts |
| Inside run | -2.22 pts |
| Outside run | -2.23 pts |
| Play action | -2.28 pts |
| Spike it | -2.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.