Jets vs Eagles — Week 6, 2023
The Jets took over leading 18-14 with 1:50 left, 1st & Goal at the Eagles 8, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Jets 20, Eagles 14. Jets won 20-14 — the drive scored.
Jets ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At the Eagles 8, 1:50 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 66.9% for Jets. Our model starts at 96.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) 20-Bre.Hall up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-Z.Wilson pass to 18-R.Cobb is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+1.75 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-9.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +1.75 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.81 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.86 pts |
| Quick out | -1.16 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.59 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.73 pts |
| Play action | -3.08 pts |
| Curl route | -3.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.60 pts |
| Deep post | -9.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.